Golf tips, free bets and latest odds for the Dubai Desert Classic and the American Express

The Dubai Desert Classic might just have to be re-named as the Rory McIlroy Pension Plan if the world No 3 manages to win it for the third year in a row this week.

McIlroy’s successful title defence a year ago was his fourth triumph in an event where he claimed the first of his 41 professional victories as a 19 year old back in 2009.

He has finished no worse than third in his last four visits, and has not fallen outside the top ten in his last ten outings here. So it is no wonder he has been installed as a red-hot favourite at 4-1.

You get the feeling he could play the Emirates course blindfolded and still finish in the mix. He will be incredibly tough to beat – but that 4-1 is not overly attractive, so the best value appears to lie in the each way market.

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Golf tips

McIlroy had to pull out all the stops to beat old rival Patrick Reed by one shot here two years ago. So it was a surprise when the American did not show up last year, even though there was no LIV event being played at the same time.

But Reed is back this time, and at 40-1, he could easily figure high up the leaderboard again.

Last year’s runner-up, Adrian Meronk, joined Reed in the LIV ranks almost immediately after making McIlroy dig deep for another one shot win.

The Pole also finished fourth here a couple of years earlier, and that course form makes you wonder why he has been pushed out to an eye-catching 90-1.

And while we are going on the horses for courses theory, 2018 champion Haotong Li is available at 150-1. He can be a bit erratic, but he played well here again 12 months ago to finish tied seventh.

American Johannes Veerman has also performed well at the Emirates in the past – notably when he finished eighth a couple of years ago.

He went into the notebook for this after grinding out a win at the Nedbank Challenge a month ago. At 66-1, he is worth a small interest.

And if you really want to side with someone nearer the top of the market, how about Rasmus Hojgaard at 22-1?

He was runner-up to McIlroy down the road in the DP World Tour Championship a few weeks ago, and blew away the cobwebs with an outing at last week’s Team Cup.

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The PGA Tour returns to mainland USA after the two-week Hawaii swing, with the American Express tournament in California.

The market was plunged into chaos by the late withdrawal of world No 2 Xander Schauffele, which left seventh-ranked Wyndham Clark as easily the top rated player in the field.

Yet Clark can be backed at 30-1. OK, his form has been a bit up and down since his 2023 US Open victory, but three top tens in his last ten starts suggests he is not that far off. So at these odds, he has to be the top pick.

Defending champion Nick Dunlap also looks over-priced at 50-1, especially after a more than satisfactory return to action with a share of tenth at last week’s Sony Open.

But the player with the standout course form here is Canadian Adam Hadwin. He has been runner-up twice, finished third on another occasion, and also boasts a couple of T6 finishes. So 55-1 is a decent each way option.

And finally, another mention for Nico Echavarria, who would have done us a favour at 80-1 last week if Nick Taylor had not chipped in for a final hole eagle, and then pipped the Colombian in a play-off.

Echavarria now has a win and two seconds in his last six starts. He is also listed at 55-1.

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