HE’S been back in the White House hardly seven weeks, yet Donald Trump has unleashed such a tsunami of policy changes that it seems more like seven years.
Americans at home still seem largely supportive, but America’s allies have been bewildered by Trump’s abandonment of key principles of US foreign policy since World War Two.
US President Donald Trump is making moves to align a big three with Vladimir Putin and Xi Jingpin
Free trade, democracy and defence of the weak against the aggressive strong were Washington’s key attractions for allies.
The brutal shakedown of Ukraine’s President Zelensky in front of the TV cameras in the White House last month made clear that Trump’s administration has no time for America as the West’s knight in shining armour.
Instead of being the ultimate guarantor for any democracy under attack, Trump made continuing to supply aid to Ukraine to fend off Russia dependent on it signing over its natural resources to the US.
CARVE UP THE PLANET
Worse still, to get their signature, Trump cut off vital intelligence information to the Ukrainians which America’s spies and satellites had been providing.
But worst of all, Trump’s kind words for Vladimir Putin as a man seeking peace puts the blame for the war on Ukraine.
Let’s zoom out from Ukraine to the global picture.
Trump is actually treating both undemocratic superpowers, Russia and China, as potential partners in a new world order.
The three biggest military powers would carve up the planet into spheres of influence.
Trump argues that he wants to bring peace to the world.
By forcing the Ukrainians to make concessions to Putin, he will get the Kremlin behind his bid to force Iran to renounce its nuclear programme.
Peace in the Middle East means getting Putin on side, which requires a quid pro quo — paid by Ukraine.
Trump thinks that by dealing with Moscow and Beijing over the heads of lesser states, he can calm a world of conflicts.
To be fair, he has proposed a 50 per cent cut in US, Russian and Chinese defence spending if Russia and China get aboard his plan.
Seductively simple as Trump’s deal of the 21st Century between the Big Three might seem, let’s remember how fragile such schemes have been in the past.
Trump is talking about bringing about a new age of peace but in reality his vision would drag the world backwards.
Trump’s brutal shakedown of Ukraine’s President Zelensky played out in front of the whole worldThe Mega Agency
Constant rivalry for who would be number one — the US, Russia or China — would really be where he’d take us back to the future.
Some 200 years ago, Napoleon and the Russian Tsar agreed to carve up the world.
But the French emperor turned on his ally in 1812 and marched to Moscow, returning with a handful of survivors.
Hitler and Stalin replayed that deal in 1939 and they fell out in 1941, with horrendous human consequences.
At the end of World War Two, Churchill and Roosevelt agreed with Stalin to set up the United Nations.
Their Big Three would keep the peace after Hitler’s defeat while respecting the rights of smaller states.
Within two years, the Cold War between east and west was under way.
Pessimists worry that the President’s mood swings could produce even more devastating disruptions to what’s left of the international system.
Mark Almond
Alliances like Nato linking North America with Europe preserved the peace and fostered democracy and prosperity.
It is true that the Europeans free-loaded on the US, though not nearly as much as Trump claims.
What matters today is that Trump despises America’s weak-kneed allies, which means he will only defend those Nato allies who spend what he demands on defence — up to five per cent of their GDP.
The EU states are promising to spend much more on defence soon — but will it be soon enough for Trump?
While they curry favour with Washington, some in Europe see China as a potential counter-weight to Trump’s MAGA American juggernaut.
China doesn’t want to see Trump and Putin carve up whatever is worth having in Ukraine between them.
The official in Beijing with responsibility for Europe suggested that any peace talks should include the Europeans and Ukrainians as well as China.
Trump’s possible alliance with Russia and China could crumble like partnerships of the pastAP
President Xi Jinping has backed Putin to cause trouble to us in the West, not to let the Russians get all the goodies under Ukraine’s blood-soaked soil.
Already, some European leaders are talking up using China to “balance” an unpredictable US.
Britain is thinking about letting China open a super-embassy here, perhaps to balance the new American diplomatic fortress over the Thames.
The European Parliament has just dropped restrictions on letting Chinese diplomats and lobbyists wander in and out.
HIGH-WIRE ACT
But given China’s bullying of neighbours such as Taiwan, and its navy’s recent live-fire exercises in the sea between Australia and New Zealand — as far from Beijing as Britain is — let’s not be naive about the plans of the world’s other economic superpower.
Optimists count on Donald Trump’s unpredictability to shift back to normal American policies.
Pessimists worry that the President’s mood swings could produce even more devastating disruptions to what’s left of the international system.
If our government and other US allies are realistic, they’ll try to keep in with Washington while beefing up our own defence.
Keir Starmer has been playing this high-wire act for the last ten days of West-West crisis.
He could have another four years of balancing over the deep divide between America and Europe.
Trump doesn’t value most of the EU members of Nato and what he likes about us is that the UK is not in the EU.
If the transatlantic gap gets too wide, which way should Starmer jump?
Is there a safe landing for Britain in this new Trump world on either side of the Atlantic?
It is unclear where Starmer’s Britain fits in with Trump’s vision for a new world orderReuters Published: [#item_custom_pubDate]
