So will Rory McIlroy hit the heights at Portrush this time, or hit it out of bounds again?
Rory backers knew their fate pretty quickly the last time the Open was played at McIlroy’s ‘local’ course, as he hit it off the planet with his opening tee shot and ran up a quadruple bogey eight.
The world No 2 admitted he made a mistake by trying to shy away from the pressure in 2019, and he is embracing it this time. That must improve his hopes of adding to his Masters triumph with another win for the ages.
If you think 6-1 is good enough to side with the popular Ulsterman, I would not attempt to talk you out of it. But taking single figure odds is very risky, especially with bad weather likely to make this Open even more unpredictable than usual.
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The Open betting tips
One thing you can predict is that Russell Henley will hole more than his share of putts, and the 50-1 available about the American jumps off the page.
Even genuine golf lovers might be surprised to learn that Henley is up to a career high of fifth in the world rankings, following his runner-up finish in his last start, at The Travelers.
That came on the heels of a share of fifth at the Memorial and a top ten finish at the US Open, two of the toughest events on the calendar.
Henley rewarded each way support by finishing fifth at Troon last year, and for my money he is the best putter in the game. Some of that money will be on him this week at these odds.
World No 1 Scottie Scheffler is listed just ahead of McIlroy as the tournament favourite at 5-1, but I prefer the chances of the third favourite, Jon Rahm.
Rahm, widely available at 12-1, warmed up nicely for this by finishing a close second to Talor Gooch at Valderrama last week, continuing his streak of never finishing outside the top ten since he joined LIV at the start of last year.
The Spaniard was third at the Open in 2021 and improved to second a couple of years ago. Seventh at Troon was a bit of a disappointment but it is only a matter of time before he raises the Claret Jug aloft.
The same thing applies to Ludvig Aberg, who is certain to improve on his runner-up finish at the Masters a year ago.
Aberg played some eye-catching golf at the Scottish Open last week, and bounced back well from a third round brain freeze to claim a share of eighth.
His victory at the Genesis earlier this year underlined his ability to win in elite company, and the 25-1 on offer is very tempting.
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Matt Fitzpatrick also played well at the Renaissance Club last week, and a share of fourth continued his recovery from a worrying slump.
The former US Open champion has looked much more like his old self since he posted a top ten finish at the USPGA. At 35-1, he represents solid each way value.
The Open leaderboard usually features a few unexpected names, and I’m hoping Matt McCarty can continue that trend at Portrush.
McCarty has been a player on the upgrade since winning three times in quick succession to earn promotion from the Korn FGerry Tour a year ago.
He would not have to improve much on his share of fourth at the Canadian Open last month to reward each way backers at an eye-popping 300-1.
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