SUNSPORT’s Weekend Wager returns once more to bring you the best analysis and tips ahead of another big weekend of sport.
The Premier League draws to a close on Sunday after a long and gruelling season.
AFPNewcastle are currently in pole position in the race for fourth place[/caption]
GETTYNottingham Forest and Chelsea will battle it out at the City Ground for a Champions League place[/caption]
GETTYAston Villa can book their place in the competition by heaping more misery on Manchester United[/caption]
And despite the title race being wrapped up weeks ago and the relegation places filled, there is still the potential for some final-day drama.
That’s because FOUR teams are in contention to nab the last Champions League spot.
Newcastle currently occupy fourth place with 66 points to their name, although they’re level on points with Aston Villa and Chelsea, who are sixth and fifth respectively.
Nottingham Forest are a point behind the trio but will need results to go their way to steal fourth spot.
Newcastle will host Everton at St James’ Park, while Forest and Chelsea will battle it out at the City Ground to try to book their Champions League adventure for next season.
And Aston Villa will look to book their place in the competition by heaping yet more misery on Manchester United at Old Trafford.
Man Utd vs Aston Villa – Sunday, 4:00pm
Kweku Afar: Villa to be winning at half time 13/10
“This is a must-win for Aston Villa. And it’s been well documented how poor Manchester United have been.
Man Utd ratings: Diallo best player in Europa League final but Hojlund out of his depth
AMAD DIALLO’S fizzing first-half display was little consolation for Manchester United in a dismal 1-0 Europa League final loss to Tottenham.
Rasmus Hojlund’s plight up front continued in one of the worst European showpieces for many years – as both sides showed why they will finish in the Premier League lower reaches.
Spurs clinched it from virtually their first opportunity – on 42 minutes.
Brennan Johnson bundled in Pape Sarr’s inswinging cross, with United left-back Luke Shaw also getting a touch on the way.
The Red Devils dictated possession more and more after the break, with Leny Yoro stretching to test Guglielmo Vicario from a free-kick.
But United’s chances only arrived regularly in the final quarter of a patchy contest.
The Red Devils belatedly piled on the pressure in the seven minutes of stoppage time, but Spurs just held on.
Here’s how SunSport’s Dave Courtnadge rated United on a miserable night individually and collectively for Ruben Amorim’s men…
“And we all saw it in the Europa League final. I’ve gone for Villa winning at half time 13/10. There was no value in picking Villa to win over 90 minutes because Manchester United are so poor.
“So I looked at the market and I looked at half time. There’s a bit of value in that 13/10. And the stats do also back a Villa win as well.
“Villa have won nine of their last 11 Premier League games. They lost the other two of those. Just one fewer than the opponents.
“Manchester United have won all season with 10. And Man Utd have won this in their last eight Premier League games, drawing two and losing six.
“And they’ve lost the last three in a row. We all know Man Utd are very, very poor.
“And I think Aston Villa, if they want to qualify for the Champions League, have to go to Old Trafford and win.”
Will Pugh: Morgan Rogers goal or assist 5/4
“I have gone for [a] Morgan Rogers‘ goal or assist at just five to four that one. But he’s been in such sparkling form. I thought, you know, goal contributions, not one or the other.
“A shade better than evens there. Not too bad at all. The stats, of course, back it up because this is Weekend Wager and we do not make bets that are not backed up by stats.
“Rodgers, ten Premier League assists this season, which is the most of any Aston Villa player.
“And only three Aston Villa players have ever provided more assists in a season than Rogers’ ten. And he’s had 19 goal contributions in total this season.
“So, at five to four there, I do think that that is a reasonable value bet, given that we’re all backing an Aston Villa win. Who’s going to be involved in it?”
SHUTTERSTOCKSunSport’s Will Pugh reckons Morgan Rogers will add to his assists against Manchester United[/caption]
Sam Rosbottom: Ollie Watkins to score 13/10
“I’ve looked at who is going to be key in this Aston Villa side. For me, that’s Ollie Watkins. You can back him to score any time at 13-10.
“He is a key player for them. He’s had a hand in 14 goals across his last 19 league appearances. He scored nine, he’s assisted five. He’s getting into positions.
“He’s having shots on goal as well. He’s had at least one shot on target in 13 of those games. I think he’ll go one better. I think he’ll score in this one.”
Nottingham Forest vs Chelsea – Sunday, 4:00pm
Kweku: Matz Sels to make five or more saves 23/10
“This is a must-win. There hasn’t been too much excitement in the Premier League this season, but all eyes will be on Forest versus Chelsea on Sunday because both teams need to win.
“Chelsea know a win guarantees them a place in the Champions League next year. Forest need a win and other results to go their way.
“But it’s definitely the game of the weekend. That’s why it’s top of the running order. I’ve gone for a Matz Sels to make five or more saves. 23 to 10.
Will: Chris Wood to score 7/4
“Right, I’ve gone [for] Chris Wood to score seven to four. Obviously, he’s had a brilliant season. He goes from strength to strength, doesn’t he?
“One of those unfashionable players that football fans like to sneer at. But he has been absolutely sensational for Forest.
“He scored 20, 20 Premier League goals this season, which is the most by a Forest player in a season since Stan Collymore got 22 in the 1994-95 campaign.
“And boys, I absolutely love this one. Wood has also scored four goals in five starts in his team’s final game of the season, which I quite like that one.
“Just one of those little weird things that football throws up every now and then. So, Sam, Chris Wood to score at 7/4.”
PASunSport’s Pugh has tipped Chris Wood to find the back of the net against Chelsea[/caption]
Sam: Anthony Elanga to get an assist 5/1
“What I fancy in this one as well, I’m looking at the anytime assist market.
“And I think I found something a little bit punchy at five to one. And that is Anthony Alanga to get an assist anytime in this match.
“Only two players have more Premier League assists this season than Alanga.
“He’s got three assists in his last five appearances, 11 assists altogether this season. So Alanga to assist Chris Wood would be nice, wouldn’t it?”
Irish 2000 Guineas – Saturday, 3:40
Sam: Officer 4/1
“Aidan O’Brien being one of those hot trainers, the most successful trainer with a record of 12 wins. He’s got Officer in this one at nine to two.
“It would be an upset for the Gosdens if Field of Gold didn’t win this after, you know, being the favourite in the 2000 Guineas over here.
“But I think Officer could cause an upset.”
Monaco Grand Prix – Sunday, 2:00
Sam: Max Verstappen to win & Lando Norris to finish on the podium 4/1
“I am going to side with Max Verstappen in this one. He did get back to winning ways at Imola last time out.
“And we do have an odds boost that it’s caught my eye on Betafair.
“Max Verstappen to win the race and Lando Norris to finish on the podium.
“Currently 4/1. Looking at the odds prior to qualifying, Max Verstappen [at] around 16/ 5.
GETTYMax Verstappen got back to winning ways at the Italian Grand Prix[/caption]
“Norris is the second favourite at 9/4 to four and your favourite Piastri at 15/8 to eight.
“Max Verstappen has won two of the last four in Monaco. Red Bull have claimed three titles there in the last four.
“But I will say and I will caveat this with keep an eye on qualifying, because Monaco tied with the German Grand Prix for most all-time wins from pole.
“32 from 37 wins have come from pole position. So keep an eye on that all-important qualifying.
“And if Max Verstappen’s on pole, then that odds boost is looking very tasty indeed.”
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