IN the Labour heartlands around Caerphilly, locals would once have “voted for a sheep if it had a red rosette on it,” retired Gerald Cobley tells me.
Bracken-clad old slagheaps dot the landscape where King Coal once ruled and luminaries including party founder Keir Hardie held sway.
Adrian SherrattLabour is on course to lose the Welsh heartlands as a by-election dust-up looms for Starmer, an explosive poll revealed[/caption]
Adrian SherrattLlyr Powell, Reform’s candidate in the Senedd by-election, says ‘Labour has abandoned its core supporters’[/caption]
Folk here didn’t just vote Labour, it was part of their identity.
Now, that seemingly unbreakable bond appears to be crumbling like the famous Caerphilly cheese.
An explosive poll suggests Labour is on the brink of losing Wales, its bastion of support since 1918.
It’s a prospect that will only encourage party plotters who want to kick Sir Keir Starmer out of Downing Street.
Strolling beside Caerphilly’s stunning castle, teacher Andrew O’Shea, 65, tells me: “I grew up in this town as a Labour supporter.
“They were the party for the working class but now they’ve lost themselves. Starmer is out of his depth.”
Like many in the Valleys, the former publican says he will switch his vote to Nigel Farage’s Reform UK.
“I want somebody to take control of the borders,” he insists. “Like thousands in this town I’m going to protest-vote Reform because we’re tired of Labour getting it so wrong.”
‘Crisis in Wales’
Insisting that taxes are too high and that the cost of living is “shocking”, Andrew added: “Labour needs a wake-up call.”
On October 23, Caerphilly goes to the polls in a by-election for a seat in the Welsh Senedd (parliament).
Normally such a contest wouldn’t attract much national political attention, but this time the result will echo all the way to Westminster.
Last month a YouGov poll for next year’s Senedd elections had Welsh nationalists Plaid Cymru on 30 per cent, with Reform UK trailing by a single point. Labour were a dismal third on 14 per cent, three points ahead of the Tories.
In 2021, Labour won 40 per cent of votes for the Senedd.
It has been the largest party in Wales in every major election since 1918.
If Caerphilly voters confirm that Labour is indeed heading for a meltdown, party calls for Sir Keir’s head could become deafening.
Dr Jac Larner, a polling expert at Cardiff University, told one newspaper: “Labour is facing an existential crisis in Wales that threatens to end over a century of political dominance.”
He says if Labour isn’t the largest party after next year’s Senedd elections, it will end the “longest streak” of dominance by “any party anywhere in the world”.
Not so long ago, voters here seemed to be born with Labour values pumping through their umbilical cord.
Growing up in Caerphilly, Rishi Sunak’s former special adviser Jack Sellers remembers asking his gran about her political views.
“I’ll vote Labour, love — always have and always will,” she told him.
When he pressed her on why, she explained: “That’s how it is around here. My father voted Labour, so I always have.”
Adrian SherrattAndrew O’Shea, 65, said: ‘I grew up on Labour. They lost themselves’[/caption]
Adrian SherrattColin Davies, 30, said: ‘Starmer isn’t tough on immigration’[/caption]
Adrian SherrattEmma O’Sullivan, 40, said: ‘The NHS here is on its knees. It’s awful’[/caption]
So why are the Welsh falling out of love with the institution that was once part of the fabric of their lives?
A friendly town of 41,000 dominated by its 13th Century castle, visitors to Caerphilly are greeted by a giant statue of its most famous son, comic magician Tommy Cooper.
Walking nearby, mum-of-two Emma O’Sullivan, 40, says one of her major gripes with Labour is the state of the NHS, which is run in Wales by the devolved government.
“The NHS here is on its knees. It’s just awful,” she said. “My son’s got ear problems and he’s been on a waiting list for almost a year now. They’re completely understaffed and haven’t got enough of a budget.”
Nearly one in four Welsh people are on a waiting list for treatment.
The typical wait is 21 weeks — compared to just 13 weeks in England.
More than 613,000 Welsh people have been waiting more than two years for treatment — again, a far worse rate than England.
Sitting on a bench in the castle grounds, Aaron, 42, a carer, said: “My nan had a heart problem and moved from Wales up to England just for better healthcare.”
Starmer needs to get his act together. They say they’ve got no money, but they’re giving money to people who come over on the boats.
Gillian Champion
All this in the land of Labour’s Nye Bevan, who spearheaded the creation of the NHS.
Labour has led every Welsh government since devolution in 1999.
The cost-of-living crisis has cut deep. More than a quarter of Welsh people aged 16 to 64 are not in employment (compared to around a fifth in England) while productivity is 17 per cent below the UK average.
Talk to many here and immigration is a key electoral issue.
Caerphilly voted to leave the EU, with a 57 to 43 per cent Brexit result.
Fishing for carp in the castle moat, dad-of-five Colin Davies, 30, said: “Starmer isn’t tough enough on immigration.”
The one-time scrap dealer backs Farage to tackle the issue, “if he does what he says”.
Meanwhile carer Gillian Champion, 64, an undecided voter, told me: “Starmer needs to get his act together. They say they’ve got no money, but they’re giving money to people who come over on the boats.”
‘Polls not looking good’
At the local Reform campaign HQ, I met Llyr Powell, a “rugby boy” and comms worker who is the party’s candidate in the Senedd by-election.
Like most folk in the area, the 30-year-old comes from Labour stock.
“I’m the great-grandson and grandson of miners. My mother was a nurse and voted Labour,” he said.
“Their Labour Party doesn’t resemble the party today. Labour has abandoned its core supporters.”
Adrian SherrattIf Caerphilly voters confirm that Labour is indeed heading for a meltdown, party calls for Sir Keir’s head could become deafening[/caption]
Mr Powell wants to scrap the Welsh government’s Nation Of Sanctuary plan that would help refugees find accommodation and jobs.
He said: “They spent £55million on this. It’s a vanity project.
“I also think we should be tightening planning laws to make sure the conversions of hotels into temporary HMOs (houses of multiple occupancy) should be a lot harder to achieve.”
Last week Reform’s former leader in Wales, Nathan Gill, admitted taking bribes to make pro-Russia statements while he was a member of the European Parliament.
Gill, 52, pleaded guilty to taking money from Oleg Voloshyn — once described by the US government as a “pawn” of Russian secret services — in charges dating back to 2018.
The Anglesey man will be sentenced in November and expects to be jailed.
But Mr Powell doesn’t believe Gill’s conviction will derail his campaign, saying: “Reform has 250,000 members. What you’re talking about is one individual. People should judge me for the person that I am.”
Polls suggest Reform and nationalists Plaid Cymru will battle it out for the seat.
Labour reacted this week by sending a billboard lorry into Caerphilly with the message, “A vote for Plaid risks letting Reform win”.
A Plaid Cymru spokesman said: “Labour’s billboard is nothing more than a desperate scare tactic.
Labour is facing an existential crisis in Wales that threatens to end over a century of political dominance.
Dr Jac Larner, a polling expert at Cardiff University
“People feel let down and taken for granted by the Labour government. NHS waiting lists are high. Schools are underfunded. Councils are struggling to deliver essential services.”
Quizzed before this week’s Labour conference, Keir Starmer said he was unsure if he would campaign in Caerphilly.
But the Prime Minister announced the region would get up to £21.5 million in funding as part of the Pride In Place initiative to boost High Streets and parks.
Downing Street knows that losing a swathe of its Welsh seats would make the path to a fresh Commons majority far trickier.
A year ago — as Sir Keir delivered a General Election landslide — Labour won 27 Welsh seats, Plaid Cymru four, the Lib Dems one while the Tories and Reform didn’t secure any.
A YouGov poll of 13,000 voters last week suggested that Reform would now gain 23 Welsh seats with Labour landing just three.
Wales’s First Minister Eluned Morgan said at her party’s conference: “The polls are not looking good. People are angry. Disillusioned.”
Channel 5Caerphilly, a friendly town of 41,000 dominated by its 13th Century castle, is the hometown of comic magician Tommy Cooper[/caption]
Adrian SherrattThe Sun’s Chief Features Writer Oliver Harvey in Caerphilly[/caption]
The Labour premier added: “Reform blames foreigners, Plaid blame Westminster.
“Divisive nationalism in different forms. Different poison, same bottle.
“Unlike the peddlers of easy answers, Welsh Labour doesn’t just talk, we deliver.”
The people of Caerphilly will soon pass their judgment on her party’s performance.
If they strike the first death knell for Labour in its once-impregnable fortress, the result will reverberate across the UK.
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