PRESIDENT Donald Trump’s surprise attack on Iran’s three main nuclear sites is a dramatic escalation of the Middle East crisis.
By neutralising the places where it was enriching uranium to A-bomb grade, the Americans have almost certainly killed any immediate threat of an Iranian nuclear weapon.
maxar technologiesAmerica neutralised the places where Iran was enriching uranium to A-bomb grade[/caption]
GettyPresident Trump launched a surprise attack on Iran’s three main nuclear sites[/caption]
GettyProtests in capital Tehran against strikes by the US[/caption]
But Washington has not necessarily won the war yet.
Israel’s extraordinary decapitation strikes on military leaders and nuclear scientists ten days ago battered the Islamic Republic but it did not back down.
Even taking out Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei himself would not necessarily collapse the regime or make Iran give in.
America can do vastly more harm to the Iranians than Israel, but will they back off?
More importantly, could Iran’s leaders survive giving in to Trump’s demand they abandon any nuclear enrichment project to Washington’s satisfaction?
Cutting their losses by accepting Trump’s demands would be wisest for the sake of 90million ordinary Iranians.
Remember, Trump had ominously ordered the ten million people of the capital, Tehran, to evacuate the city for their own safety.
But Iran’s leaders are drenched in the cult of martyrdom.
Suicide bombing was promoted by the ayatollahs’ regime from the beginning.
Their proxies in Lebanon blew up 242 US Marines there in 1983 with the first “spectacular” suicide truck bomb.
Next month in their religious calendar is Muharram, which is when Iran’s Shiites celebrate what cynical secular Westerners regard as past futile sacrifices.
So making the case for cutting losses goes against the grain.
Even if Khamenei and the official Iran government go for a deal with Trump, they could face a backlash from hardline fanatics.
They could argue America and Israel are never going to risk a ground invasion.
Trump’s supporters won’t accept body bags coming back from Iran as they did from Afghanistan and Iraq for years for nothing.
They can sit out an air war and absorb the bombs and casualties, they hope. And they can shoot and hang any Iranians who protest.
As the Revolutionary Guards controlling Iran’s missiles showed immediately after the American air strikes, they can hit back hard — at least against Israel.
They may be shrewd enough to avoid US targets so Trump won’t retaliate against Iran, but hit Washington’s allies.
Israel was already in their sights and, however effective its defences, even a handful of missiles getting in paralyses a port like Haifa or the main airport, Ben Gurion
Israel is losing money hand over fist, if mercifully few lives.
The Iranians would be wise to find a way to calm things rather than stirring up more death and destruction.
Mark Almond
Let’s not ignore that Britain could find itself in the line of fire.
Long before the current crisis, Iranian propaganda demonised us as the Little Satan scurrying along beside the American Great Satan.
So when Keir Starmer voiced the British government’s support for the US and Israel’s right to nullify the Iranian nuclear threat, that will have been “proof” enough for Iran’s fanatical missile controllers.
Only the day before Trump’s salvo of bunker busters and cruise missiles on Iran, a man was arrested for allegedly scouting the British base at Akrotiri, apparently as a target for a potential terrorist attack.
Although a British passport holder, he is reported to be an ethnic Azeri, the second-biggest part of Iran’s population mix.
The Ayatollah himself is half-Azeri through his mother.
Iran could have “sleeper cells” of similar saboteurs waiting for the signal to go into action against Britain and other US allies — or even inside the US itself.
The Iranians would be wise to find a way to calm things rather than stirring up more death and destruction.
But that was true long before this war broke out.
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