FIVE months is a very long time in football.
Back in May, Nigerian striker Victor Osimhen confirmed his place as a legend among fans of Napoli.
GettyVictor Osimhen has become the superstar of Napoli but could be on the move[/caption]
The 24-year-old attacker scored 26 league goals and registered four assists as the team from the south of Italy won their first Serie A title for 33 years.
His face appeared on walls and posters all throughout the city, alongside the eternal hero of Naples Diego Maradona.
Now, eight games into the Serie A season we see Napoli sitting in 5th position, seven points behind league leaders AC Milan.
And things have started to unravel.
Last month Osimhen reacted with disbelief when substituted as his team chased a goal against Bolgna.
And he was outraged when the club’s official social media accounts appeared to mock the Nigerian forward for missing a penalty.
All talk of a new deal has now stalled and now it appears that there is a strong chance that Osimhen will leave the club sooner rather than later.
However Osimhen will not be cheap.
He is under contract until the end of the 24/25 season and De Laurentis is known as an owner who is not easy to negotiate with.
This will limit the potential destinations for Osimhen to either the Saudi Pro League or the Premier League.
Even with the riches on offer in the Premier League though there are only a handful who are likely destinations for the Nigerian.
Manchester City have Erling Haaland leading the line while Manchester United have invested £72m in Rasmus Hojlund.
Osimhen does not fit the playing style of Liverpool under Jurgen Klopp and as such we are down to a choice between Arsenal and Chelsea.
We take a look at which club would suit Osimhen better for a January transfer move.
Ability to lead the line
At the moment Arsenal have a choice between Eddie Nketiah and Gabriel Jesus to lead the line as the lone striker in their 4-3-3 system.
In the summer they spent a significant fee to take Kai Havertz from Chelsea but, despite playing as a centre forward for Chelsea, he has featured more as an advanced central midfielder so far for Arsenal.
While there is no doubt that Nketiah and Jesus have huge amounts of ability neither of them really has the physical profile of an elite No9.
When you think about the likes of Haaland, Hojlund, Harry Kane or even Robert Lewandowski you start to notice that they all have size and a presence, along with great mobility.
Jesus is more comfortable when in the channels of even the wide areas and Nketiah is quick but less physically powerful.
Napoli are on the counter-attack and the ball has been played towards the opposition half with Osimhen as the only player near the ball. He is up against two defenders but not only does he have the pace to reach the ball first he is powerful enough to outplay the first defender before driving towards goal
This lack of a more powerful forward limits the tactical approach that Arsenal can take and given the way that they have developed under Mikel Arteta they would benefit from being able to play longer at times.
Having the option to play slightly longer and to launch a counterattack can make opposition teams play deeper and this would allow Arsenal to control games more.
Too often we see Nketiah or Jesus either drop too deep or come out into the wide areas as Arsenal are looking to attack quickly.
By not positioning themselves centrally they take an option away, as well as allowing the opposition central defenders to be more comfortable without a direct opponent looking to play tight to them.
Here, as Arsenal look to transition to a counter attack we see the ball being won and played through the midfield. Nketiah, however, is far too deep and as such he is not in a position to instantly look to attack space behind the defensive line.
Adding a forward with the profile of Osimhen would create more options in the attack for Arsenal.
His presence leading the attacking line would force opposition defenders to play further back as he is more comfortable positioning himself against the last man with his back to goal and he has the pace to threaten with runs behind.
This, in itself, would create space between the opposition midfield and defence that Arsenal could look to exploit.
Presence in the area
While both Eddie Nketiah and Gabriel Jesus are, relatively, good finishers, neither of them can be described as having a particularly strong presence in the opposition penalty area.
Nketiah is quick and has good movement when looking to attack the first ball in the area while Jesus is perhaps more likely to drop out of the area or stay towards the edge to look for a potential cut back opportunity.
Osimhen would offer something completely different to the other two forwards for Arsenal as not only does he have real power and presence in the area but he displays intelligent movement in order to lose the defender.
Osimhen is very strong in the air and he will score more than his fair share of headed chances but this is a result of his ability to read the game and the flight of the ball as it comes into the area.
Here, we see Osimhen isolated at the far side of the area against a single defender. As Kvaratskhelia cuts back to his right foot we see Osimhen pull off the blind side of the defender before making a strong movement towards goal to meet the ball
Osimhen has great movement in the final third but crucially, and importantly for Arsenal, he displays a real willingness to play between the width of the goals.
His positioning and his ability to play with his back to goal or to spin and run behind the opposition defence means that the opposition central defenders have to be more disciplined in terms of holding their position and not allowing Osimhen to isolate on one of them.
By effectively pinning the central defenders deep in this manner Osimhen creates space for the central midfielders of Napoli to move into higher positions or for the wingers to come inside.
Given the options that Arsenal have in midfield and on the wings, this could be extremely effective for Arteta’s side.
With the ball on the near side we see Eddie Nketiah looking to make a long run to attack space in the penalty area. Nketiah tends to make straight-line movements that are explosive but he is less dominant in the area than Osimhen is
Even when Osimhen is the only player in the area when the ball is played either from the wings or from deeper central areas he is capable of creating chances on his own and his dominance in the air can draw opposition defenders towards him in the area.
This kind of profile can create a huge threat for a team who play the way that Arsenal do.
Linking with the midfield
The presence that we have already discussed that Osimhen has in the area extends to his ability outside of the area to play with his back to goal.
His ability to pin opposition defenders and to receive in the final third allows Napoli to comfortably progress the ball forward and into dangerous areas.
Crucially, when receiving the ball in these areas he has the ability to either spin and attack space behind the defence or to play intelligent passes out or back to move the opposition defence and exploit space.
This is something that Gabriel Jesus is also very strong at receiving back to goal and linking play but he displays a clear tendency and preference to do so either in the channels or even out in the wide areas.
How Victor Osimhen and Gabriel Jesus compare this season
Osimhen is in a central position, and as he receives the ball he has attracted two defensive players over to him. This creates space on the near side for the winger and Osimhen bounces the ball outside to create a chance
For all that Arsenal, under Arteta, have impressed with the rate of their development from a tactical perspective there are still areas in which they need to develop.
While they attack well they lack a real focal point in the attack and a player who will provide the attacking platform that they can play into in order to move the attack forward.
Osimhen is much better rounded in this regard than either Nketiah or Jesus and his strength and intelligence when it comes to receiving and linking the play would clearly add another dimension to the attack for Arsenal.
Here, we see Arsenal building the attack from a deeper position. Nketiah has dropped so deep that he effectively receives the ball short from the player in possession. A more advanced position, as marked here, would allow Arsenal to play through the lines.
While Arsenal have developed into a team that builds and creates the attack from a very specific base in the defensive and midfield lines, they are still missing a genuine platform in the attack that they can play into.
Victor Osimhen would fit this profile for them perfectly.
What about Chelsea?
While it is true that Arsenal are better placed to ‘win now’ given their squad and the structures already in place around the first-team, Chelsea are likely to be very keen to sign the impressive Osimhen.
Chelsea also have the finances needed to pull off a deal for a player like him.
There is no doubt that Osimhen would absolutely improve Chelsea, he would improve almost any team in the world.
But even more so for Chelsea who are relying this season on two relatively inexperienced strikers in the 22-year-olds Nicolas Jackson and Armando Broja.
Chelsea are creating chances at a good rate and if their finishing success was better then they would be performing far better in the Premier League this season.
Nicolas Jackson has two goals to Victor Osimhen’s six
Chelsea are creating chances but are not taking them. Jackson takes up a good initial position though, central and between the centrebacks, this is exactly the kind of positioning that we would expect to see from Osimhen. However Jackson missed the chance.
They are still producing good quality chances at a relatively high rate, they are just struggling to consistently finish those chances.
The signing of a player like Osimhen would improve them immediately and given his consistent form in front of goal in recent seasons you have to think that he would be in a position to finish more of the chances that Chelsea are producing.
With Enzo Fernandez in midfield Chelsea have one of the best creative passers in football and with the likes of Raheem Sterling in form on the wing we see Chelsea having the ability to dominate teams.
So far, however, they have lacked fluidity and a cutting edge
Again we see Jackson with a shot on goal and a chance that you cannot help but feel that Osimhen would have taken. This time it is Raheem Sterling in possession in the area and as he pulls the ball back we see Jackson in space to receive centrally
With a striker like Osimhen, who is capable of leading the line and playing as an isolated striker, Chelsea would be able to mix up the way that they look to attack.
They would be able to play longer to escape pressure with the knowledge that Osimhen can take the ball and hold it or drive at defenders when isolated and that the ball would not just come straight back.
However in Broja and Jackson they already have two promising, if faw, young central strikers.
And the addition of Osimhen would stifle their chances of ever making the grade at Stamford Bridge.
Conclusion
Make no mistake about it. Victor Osimhen is going to be expensive.
Napoli will not sell him cheaply and they will look to maximise value. The thing is though that he will almost undoubtedly prove to be worth the fee.
His profile and playing style feel perfectly suited to the Premier League and Arsenal are without a doubt the club that make the most sense for him.
Signing Osimhen would take Arsenal to the next level and could lead to them becoming a truly dominant force.
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