Why Arsenal will SMASH Wolves and the Fulham star who can tear Man Utd apart – the stats behind the weekend’s best bets

SUNSPORT’S Weekend Wager uses in-depth stats and cutting-edge analysis to unearth the best value bets from the upcoming sporting weekend.

Joining Will Pugh this week is football journalist Kweku Afari and betting expert Jamie Mackie as we find the best value on the coming days’ football, horse racing and more.

SunSport’s Weekend Wager team are finding the best value bets for this weekend

This week we analyse why you can expect goals, goals and more goals in Wolves vs Arsenal.

Cole Palmer is back at the Etihad on Saturday evening – we look at how the Chelsea star can punish Man City for letting him go.

Plus we have a tasty 17/2 bet on one Fulham star who could have a field day against Manchester United’s dodgy defence.

Check out all our best bets for the weekend below:

WOLVES VS ARSENAL

Kweku Afari: “Big game, at both ends of the table. My pick is Arsenal to score four or more goals at 9/2.

“It’s pretty straightforward. Wolves have been shipping a lot of goals this season.

“They’ve conceded 51 goals in 22 league games this year, 2.3 goals per game, which is the most in the Premier League.

“At this pace, they’re set to concede 88 goals, which will be the third most in the history of a 38-game Premier League season.

“Only behind Sheffield United last season, conceding a whopping 104 goals, and that infamous Derby side from 07-08, who conceded 89 goals.

“What do those two teams have in common? They both went down.

“Wolves have conceded 11 goals in their last four Premier League games, three in each of their last three games.

“They don’t look very good defensively. I think they’re going to concede a lot of goals against Arsenal.”

GettyArsenal are set to have a field day against Wolves[/caption]

GettyArsenal’s top goalscorer this season Kai Havertz bagged in the Champions League on Wednesday night[/caption]

Will Pugh: “You’re bang on the money. It’s exactly what I’m thinking as well.

“I’ve gone with Arsenal to win, and five or more goals in the game at 5/1.

“Arsenal have scored in each of their last 34 games against Wolves. The last time they failed to score against them was in February 1979.

“It’s both Arsenal‘s longest scoring streak against an opponent and Wolves’ longest run without a clean sheet against a team in both teams’ respective history.

“It screams Arsenal scoring.

“But since the start of the 2022-23 season, Arsenal have conceded just 0.8 goals a game when William Saliba starts, compared to 1.7 when he doesn’t.

“In fact, they’ve kept just two clean sheets in 13 games without him.

“Arsenal may also have some Champions League fatigue and going forward Wolves, with Matheus Cunha and Stand Larsen, have been playing quite well. I fancy them to score as well.”

GettyGabriel might be without William Saliba on Saturday[/caption]

Jamie Mackie: “A little bit of hidden value for you. It’s not going to break records, he’s just going to kick me off here.

“It’s 4/5 for Leandro Trossard to score or assist in the game. I think one to add in to bet builders for people punting this weekend.

“And just a few stats to back it up here. Leandro Trossard has been involved in six goals in his last six Premier League starts, two goals, four assists. With 2+ shots in five of those six games.

“And also the Belgian has been involved in more goals against Wolves than any other opponent in the Premier League. So he loves playing against Wolves.”

ReutersJamie Mackie thinks Trossard could score or assist against Wolves[/caption]

SunSport’s best Arsenal bets

Arsenal to score four or more goals at 9/2.
Arsenal to win, and five or more goals in the game at 5/1.
Leandro Trossard to score or assist in the game at 4/5.

MAN CITY VS CHELSEA

Kweku: “Pretty straightforward for me here. Chelsea to receive four more cards in the game, 5/4.

“Chelsea’s season has been underpinned by ill-discipline. They have actually accrued the second most yellow cards this season, with 64. Only Southampton have conceded more with 65.

“Think about the difference in the two sides, right? Chelsea have a lot of the ball. So why are you giving away so many fouls? That’s because of the ill-discipline.

“I expect that to continue in this game against a Man City team that will have a lot of the ball.

“City only had 34 per cent possession against PSG in midweek but I expect to have a lot more of the ball at the Etihad.

“That will lead to Chelsea frustrations, hence the bookings.”

ReutersChelsea’s season has been underpinned by ill-discipline[/caption]

Will: “I’m going Cole Palmer to score two or more goals against his old team, that’s 10/1.

“Palmer and Noni Madueke have created 25 chances for each other in the Prem this season, which is the most of any duo. It’s giving strong Heung-Min Son and Harry Kane vibes.

“Palmer’s 17 chances created for Madueke is actually the most one player has created for a specific team-mate in the Premier League.

“I know you might be thinking, well, why are you going for Palmer to score the goals?

“But I do fancy that he’ll want to prove to his old fans, you know, look, look at me now, don’t you wish you still had me? So at 10/1, I really fancy that.”

APEnzo Maresca has benefited from Palmer and Madueke’s partnership[/caption]

Jamie: “That Palmer 10/1 really screams a lot of value. Like you said, going back to his old stomping ground.

“He’s had another brilliant season and he’ll want to prove a point. And when you get in 10/1 against a leaky defence of Man City, which conceded four in the Champions League against PSG.

“But it’s going to be a tight cagey game, isn’t it? You expect cards and especially for Chelsea with the old discipline. So two good bets there for me there.

“I’m starting with Foden to have two-plus shots on target, at 8/5.

“Foden has scored five goals in his last three Premier League games. He’s had two plus shots in six of his last seven.

“I’ll be adding it into a bet builder with Kevin De Bruyne to score or assist in the game. Together that will be 7/2.”

AFPFoden to have two-plus shots on targetat 8/5.[/caption]

SunSport’s best Chelsea bets

Chelsea to receive four more cards in the game at 5/4.
Cole Palmer to score two or more goals against his old team at 10/1.
Foden to have two-plus shots on target and De Bruyne to score or assist 7/2.

FULHAM VS MAN UTD

Kweku: “I’ve hit the card market again. Sasa Lukic to be carded 2/1.

“The Fulham midfielder is actually the joint most booked player in the Premier League this season, along with Southampton’s Flynn Downes, with nine bookings.

“So expect the Fulham midfielder to pick up a card in this one.”

Will: “I’ve gone Fulham to win by two or more goals at 10/3.

“Fulham are onto such a good thing this season. They’re really going under the radar. Marco Silva has got them playing some really good stuff. Man Utd, as we know, are in absolute disarray.

“Fulham have scored exactly two goals in each of their last five Premier League matches. So it could easily be a 2-0.

“Only once in their top flight history have they netted two or more goals in six games in a row. That was in 1966. And this next stat is why I really like this bet and the chances of Fulham winning.

“Andre Onana has made three errors leading to an opposition goal this season. And we’ve still got loads of the season to go, haven’t we?

“Onana’s save ratio is 63.6 per cent. It’s the lowest by a Red Devils keeper since Anders Lindegaard, remember him, in 2012-2013. Wow.”

RexMan Utd can’t stop leaking goals[/caption]

Jamie: “Let’s not beat around the bush. Man Utd are rubbish. They have been dreadful this season.

“Kweku, I think you found the one here. I think this could be the best bet of your lot so far.

“I’ve just gone for a single selection here. And I think it’s actually a bit of hidden value here. It’s 17/2 for Alex Iwobi to have two shots on target.

“If you look at some of the stats around Iwobi, he’s had two first shots in each of his last five matches. Including three shots on target in his last three.

“He has been absolutely superb under Silva. That front four have been absolutely brilliant and Iwobi’s been a big part of that.

“If you look on the side, he’s going to play against Diogo Dalot or Noussair Mazraoui.

“They give up opportunities, left, right and centre. I think it’s a cracking bet.”

SunSport’s best Man Utd v Fulham bests

Sasa Lukic to be carded 2/1.
Fulham to win by two or more goals at 10/3.
Alex Iwobi to have two shots on target at 17/2.

HORSE RACING

Jamie: “The last Cheltenham meeting before the Cheltenham Festival in March. Seven unbelievable trials for that four days in March.

“I’ve gone for at Cheltenham, look, it’s not going to blow anyone away. It’s even money.

“It’s one to start you off for your day before the football begins at three o’clock. It’s the East India Dock to win the 1.15 at Cheltenham.

“This horse, he won last time out at Cheltenham in a Grade 2 Triumph Trial in November and I personally think this should be shorter. He’s only run twice over hurdles. He’s improved from run to run.

“He was a brilliant flat horse and I think he’s going places for trainer James Owen this season.

“The angle to take with him, though, if you don’t want to take the short price of even money, he’s 6/1 for the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival. I think he’ll be about three or two to one after winning.

“So maybe the angle is to play the anti-post market at a bigger price and watch and have a really nice ticket when it comes to the Cheltenham Festival.”

Cheltenham tips

East India Dock to win the 1.15 at Cheltenham at Evens
6/1 for the Triumph Hurdle at the Festival

DUTCH DARTS MASTERS

Jamie: “Fresh off the back of his 18th birthday, we have Luke Littler at the Dutch Masters. He’s 2/1 to win.

“Look, he’s been brilliant, and he’s been amazing for the sport over the last two years. When he won the World Championships over Christmas, everyone was behind it. Everyone’s watching.

“Luke Humphries is in there and MVG, you can’t forget about him at his home tournament. He’s 6/1. Not a nice bit of value there.

“Gerwyn Price is one to keep note of. Runner up in Bahrain, the last tournament before this and he knocked out Littler then. So the Welshman has got a bit of form going in.

“But I think the value lies here with, let’s go Bunting Mental.

“He won in Bahrain, and is 8/1 to win the Dutch Masters. That could be the value.

“From a value point of view, it seems like you’re better off parking Littler. He can be beaten and his odds aren’t great.”

GettyThe Dutch Masters value lies with Stephen Bunting[/caption]