SUNSPORT’S Weekend Wager uses in-depth stats and razor-sharp analysis to bring you the best value bets from the upcoming bumper weekend of sport.
Joining our very own Will Pugh on this week’s show is football journalist Kweku Afari and Betfair betting expert James Mackie.
APChelsea vs Liverpool is the big game this weekend[/caption]
This week the panel break down where the value is hidden for the Premier League’s mega clash between newly crowned champions Liverpool and European chasers Chelsea on Sunday.
While they also look at Sunday’s other big game as Brighton take on Newcastle United at the Amex.
Saving enough time to take a punt on the Newmarket races and a little look at Indian Premier League Cricket.
Chelsea vs Liverpool
Kewku Afari: Over 3.5 goals – 5/4
“I’m expecting goals in this one. They’re pretty short odds, but the stats back it up as well.
“Liverpool are champions now after that win against Spurs last week and have scored in each of their last 30 Premier League matches.
“While Chelsea have failed to keep a clean sheet against a top six side at home since August. There will be goals in this one.
“Liverpool won’t be on the beach, but they could be a bit more open. Chelsea are in win now mode, but I can’t predict a Chelsea win.
“However, I will predict plenty of goals in this one.”
There could be plenty of goals in Chelsea vs Liverpool
Will Pugh: Chelsea to win – EVENS
“Liverpool have done their job now for the season. I think I’ve gone for a Chelsea win for the value instead of choosing an imaginative bet.
“Chelsea are at home, and I know Liverpool have been hard to beat this season, but I just fancy that there’s some value there.
“The stats back it up again. Chelsea have picked up 17 points in their last eight Premier League matches.
“While only two Liverpool managers (Bill Shankly and Roy Evans) have won their first league games against Chelsea at Red boss.
“Arne Slot would become only the third Liverpool gaffer to do that after their 2-1 win earlier in the season.”
James Mackie: Luis Diaz to score or assist – 2/1
“I think this is a great price for a player that has been in and amongst the goals and assists this season.
“Diaz has scored or assisted in six of his last seven Premier League appearances.
“While he also has three goal involvements in three league games against Chelsea.
“If he starts, I think at 2/1 it’s the hidden value on Sunday”.
AFPLuis Diaz has scored or assisted in six of his last seven Premier League appearances[/caption]
Brighton vs Newcastle
Kewku Afari: Brighton to win – 8/5
“When you look at Newcastle’s record away to Brighton, it’s not good.
“The Magpies are winless in all seven of their Premier League visits to Brighton. They’re drawn four of those and lost three.
“This is a place that Newcastle struggle and despite their great form, Brighton always prove to be difficult customers for the Toon Army.
“Brighton have already beaten Newcastle twice this season, 1-0 in the reverse league fixture, and 2-1 in the FA Cup. History points to a Brighton win”.
Will Pugh: Over 4.5 goals – 3/1
“I just fancy goals, goals, goals. We saw last week there was five goals in Brighton’s 3-2 win over West Ham.
“Brighton are one of only two sides in the Premier League this season who have both scored and conceded more than 55 goals.
“Each of the Seagull’s last 11 matches have seen at least three goals scored. That’s 45 goals in 11 games – an average of 4.1 goals per game.
“Couple that with the fact that, under Eddie Howe, Newcastle have won 27 Premier League matches by a margin of three or more goals”.
James Mackie: Alexander Isak to score anytime – 11/10
“This is simply a value bet. When you’re getting a prime striker like Isak, Kylian Mbappe or Mohamed Salah to score and you’re getting odds against, you HAVE to have a look at it.
“Only Salah has more goals in the league that Isak in 2025. He’s playing a Brighton side that have been leaking goals and this looks like good value”.
GettyAlexander Isak can’t stop scoring goals[/caption]
Newmarket – Sat, 3.35pm
James Mackie: Field of Gold – 7/4, Ruling Court – 4/1, Expanded – 9/2, Scorthy Champ – 13/2, Shadow of Light – 7/1
“I think this is when the racing really kicks into gear, this is the best three-year-olds over a mile taking on each other.
“This year there’s a stellar field going to post with all the big name trainers having runners.
“You’ve got Aidan O’Brien who’s got Expanded at 9/2, Charlie Appleby with Ruling Court at 4/1 and also Shadow of Light at 7/1.
“But Ruling Court is the one that’s come for money. It really is a prestigious race.
“The horse I think is going to win it is Field of Gold at 7/4, he’s a really likeable bray and was a really smart horse last year as a two-year-old.”
James Mackie has given his tips for Newmarket
IPL – Royal Challengers Bengaluru vs Chennai Super Kings
James Mackie: RCB to win – 8/15, CSK to win 6/4, Kohli top RCB run scorer – 17/10
“CSK are 6/4 outsiders, but that looks very short to me as they are a team with a lot of work to do at the bottom of he table.
“I think the RCB to win price is very, very short too. So I think the bet to focus on is looking at individual players.
“Virat Kohli has been on fire. In his last three games he has scored 51, 70 and 73 runs – being RCB’s top run scorer in two of those three games.
“We’re getting 17/10 to keep his good form going and I really like those odds”.
AFPRoyal Challengers Bengaluru’s Virat Kohli is on fire[/caption] Creator – [#item_custom_dc:creator]
